生猪价格波动下的厂商决策工具研究——受市场调节机制主因影响

A Research on Firms'Decision Tools under the Fluctuation of Pig Prices Influenced by Market-Mechanism

本文延续生猪市场价格波动的供应逻辑,在目前非洲猪瘟对生猪供应的影响基本出清、政策风险不构成主因、市场调节机制成为影响价格波动主要因素的情形下,对厂商基于库存冻肉、生猪出栏和母猪存栏调节的三种决策工具和市场价格波动之间的逻辑关系进行分析,并以生猪养殖行业的8家A股上市公司近5年财报数据为基础,总结上市公司具体使用决策工具的方式,为下一步定量模型的构建提供参数设计依据。

Under the situation that the impact of African swine fever on pig supply is basically clear,policy risk does not constitute the main factor,market-mechanism has become the main factor affecting price fluctuation.This paper continues the supply logic of price fluctuation in the pig market,and analyzes the relationship between market price fluctuation and firms'three decision-making tools which include frozen meat inventory,pig marketing and sow inventory regulation.Based on the financial report data for the past 5 years of 8 Ashare listed companies in the pig breeding industry,this study summarizes the specific ways in which listed companies use decision-making tools,providing parameter design basis for the next step of quantitative model construction.