产业政策对上市公司股票市场收益率的影响研究——基于业绩传导机制

Industrial Policy,Company Performance and Stock Market Yield--Based on Transmission Mechanism

以“十三五”期间的产业政策为样本,运用中介效应模型研究了产业政策、业绩和股票收益率三者之间的传导机制。结果表明,180个交易日内,业绩遮掩了产业政策对股票收益率的负向效应,使股票收益率有所上升;270个交易日内,产业政策对业绩具有显著正向影响,但此时产业政策不会通过业绩影响股票收益率;360个交易日内,产业政策对业绩无显著影响,此时也不存在产业政策影响业绩进而影响股票收益率的传导机制。

Taking the industrial policy of the 13th Five-Year Plan period as a sample,this paper studies the transmission mechanism between the industrial policy,performance and stock return rate by using the intermediary effect model.The results show that within 180 trading days,the performance covers the negative effect of the industrial policy on the stock yield,and the stock yield has a significant positive effect in 270 trading days,but the industrial policy will not affect the stock yield through the performance;within 360 trading days,there is no transmission mechanism affecting the performance.