三元边际对我国与主要贸易伙伴国经济周期协动性的影响研究

Effects of Ternary Marginal on the Coactivity of Economic Cycle Between China and Main Trading Partners

自加入WTO以来,我国对外开放的程度不断加深,在世界经济中逐渐形成了你中有我、我中有你的互动趋势,我国经济波动和贸易伙伴国的经济周期协动性加强。以与我国贸易往来频繁的17个国家为研究对象,研究数据主要来源于CEPII数据库,考虑到数据的完整性和可获得性,样本区间主要是2001—2020年,构建了6个计量模型进行实证分析,得到如下研究结论:变量BEI和变量BQI的回归系数均为正,均在1%显著性水平显著,这说明扩展强度要明显大于数量强度,扩展强度是影响我国和其他国家经济周期协动性的主要因素。数量边际和价格边际的符号方向和显著性水平多变,主要原因可能是就业数量质量不高,或者这两个因素并非影响我国和主要贸易伙伴国经济周期协动性的主要因素。在所有的研究模型中,扩展强度、国家类型的回归系数显著为正,FDI和IS的检验结果保持稳定,通过了显著性检验,这说明这四个因素是影响我国和主要贸易伙伴国经济周期协动性的主要因素。

Since joining the WTO,the level of opening to the outside world has been increasing,and gradually formed a mutual interaction trend,and our economic fluctuation and the economic cycle coactivity of trade partners has been strengthened.This paper takes 17 countries with frequent trade exchanges with China as the research object,and the research data mainly comes from CEPII database.Given the integrity and availability of data,the sample interval is mainly from 2001 to 2020.Six econometric models are constructed for empirical analysis,and the research conclusions are as follows:The regression coefficients of BEI and BQI are both positive and significant at the 1%level,indicating that expansion strength is significantly greater than quantity strength,and expansion strength is the main factor affecting the coactivity of business cycles in China and other countries.The sign direction and significance level of quantity margin and price margin are variable.The main reasons may be that the quantity and quality of employment are not high,or these two factors are not the main factors affecting the co-movement of business cycles between China and its major trading partners.In all the research models,the regression coefficients of expansion intensity and country type are significantly positive,and the test results of FDI and IS remain stable and pass the significance test,which indicates that these four factors are the main factors affecting the coactivity of business cycles between China and its major trading partner countries.