数字经济、“三生”空间与流动人口居留意愿——来自流动人口调查数据的证据

Digital Economy,"Production-Living-Ecological"Space and Floating Population's Residing Willingness--Evidence from a Floating Population Survey

在数字经济蓬勃发展时代,数字经济推动“三生”空间不断优化变革,成为影响流动人口居留意愿的重要因素,探索流动人口城市居留意愿对推进新型城镇化高质量发展具有重要意义。文章利用2018年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据与242个地级市城市特征数据进行匹配之后的数据,采用Probit模型考察数字经济发展水平对流动人口城市居留意愿的影响效应与机制。研究发现:数字经济发展水平对流动人口城市居留意愿具有显著的正向作用,城市的数字经济发展水平增加1%,流动人口居留的概率将提高22.4%;中介效应检验发现数字经济发展水平通过“三生”空间影响了流动人口居留意愿,对比来看,生活空间的中介效应最大,生态空间次之,生产空间最低;异质性分析发现数字经济发展水平对流动人口居留意愿的影响存在代际、受教育程度、城市等级之间的差异。因此,应大力发展数字经济构建经济高质量发展新动能以拓宽流动人口就业渠道,推动生产空间集聚高效、促进生活空间宜居适度、助推生态空间绿色发展,提高流动人口定居意愿,从而加快以人为本的新型城镇化建设。

In the era of the vigorous development of digital economy,the digital economy promotes a continuous optimization of the"Production-living-ecological"space,which has become an important factor affecting the willingness of floating population to reside.It is therefore of greeat significance to explore the willingness of floating population to reside in cities to promote a high-quality development of new urbanization.Based on the matching data of 2018 national floating population survey data and the data of 242 prefecture-level cities,this paper investigated the effect and mechanism of the digital economy development on the floating population's willingness to reside with the application of the Probit model.The study found that the development of the digital economy has a significant positive effect on the floating population's willingness to reside in cities.An increase of 1% in the digital economy development will increase the probability of residence by 22.4%.The mediating effect test found that"Production-livingecological"space promotes the increase of their willingness to reside.In contrast,the mediating effect of living space is the largest,followed by ecological space,and then production space.The heterogeneity analysis found that the willingness to reside is differentiated in terms of generations,educational attainment and city class.Therefore,the digital economy should be vigorously developed to build a new momentum for high-quality economic development by expanding employment channels,and promoting efficient agglomeration of production space,moderate livability of living space and the green development of ecological space,in the hope of increase their willingness settle down to accelerate the construction of new urbanization for people.