当前南亚防务合作的新动向及前景展望

New Trends and Prospect of Current Defense Cooperation of South Asia

2021年南亚防务合作形势发生了深刻变化。域内国家间边境局势缓和明显,阿富汗变局成为国际防务合作新的着眼点。域内大国不断深化与世界主要大国间的防务合作,其中以印俄、印美、巴俄以及巴中防务合作尤为突出。驻阿富汗多国部队的撤离导致地区政治格局发生重大转变,呈现“美西方影响力下降,地区和周边国家影响上升”的整体趋势。印巴两国顺势调整策略,连续打出防务合作“组合拳”,积极充当合作“枢纽”。与此同时,由印巴主导并参与的国际联合军演此起彼伏,逐步演变为两国博弈新的竞技场。在当前大变革、大动荡的时代背景下,南亚的地缘战略地位正受到全球主要大国越来越多的重视,南亚国家也随之迎来更加重要的国际防务合作窗口期。基于当前形势发展,未来一段时期,印度防务合作将从“一边倒”向“战略自主”回归,围绕阿富汗变局的防务合作也将出现明显分化,非传统安全威胁将成为南亚防务合作的重要驱动力。

The defense cooperation in South Asia experienced profound changes in 2021.The border dispute between countries in the region was eased up significantly;the political changes in Afghanistan produced an important impact on international defense cooperation.Major countries in the region continually deepened defense relations with major powers in the world.The withdrawal of the multinational forces from Afghanistan made great changes in the political structure in the region,a general trend that the influence of the United States and the West declined,while the influence of the region and surrounding countries increased.India and Pakistan took advantage of the opportunity to adjust their strategies by continuously launching a"combination acts"in defense cooperation and actively serving as a"hub"for cooperation.Meanwhile,the international joint military exercises organized by India and Pakistan gradually evolved into a new arena for competition between the two countries.In the era of great changes and upheavals,major powers around the world paid more attention to the geostrategic position of South Asia,which provides an important opportunity to strengthen international defense cooperation for South Asian countries.Based on the current situation,this paper believed that in the near future,India's policy of defense cooperation will return to its strategic autonomy,and the defense cooperation centered on the changes in Afghanistan will also be significantly divided.In addition,non-traditional security threats will become an important driving force for defense cooperation in South Asia.