基于变权集对-多维联系正态云模型的TBM地质适应性评价预测

Evaluation and Prediction of TBM′s Geological Adaptability Based on Variable-Weight Set Pair-Multidimensional Linked Normal Cloud Model

为解决TBM地质适应性评估中存在的模糊性及多因素之间相互影响的复杂性难题,在多维云模型的基础上,提出一种基于集对分析与多维云模型相耦合的多维联系正向正态云模型评价方法。通过统计研究分析国内12条隧洞106组TBM地质适应性数据的特征规律,选取设备参数、地质条件、不良地质问题在内的10个典型指标建立评价指标体系。将各评价指标作为多维联系正向正态云模型的一维变量,依据同异反原理与云理论,获取适合的3个云数字特征值,生成各适应性等级下的云滴;继而根据TBM地质适应能力隶属于各适应性等级的综合确定度,采用最大确定度原则判定TBM地质适应性等级,由此综合反映出评价多因素间的确定性与不确定性关系。此外,在IFAHP、改进ICRITIC及改进博弈论组合赋权确定综合常权重的基础上,利用基于因素空间思想的变权理论确定指标总层次排序权重,实现评价过程中指标的主动介入性。经应用于实际表明:变权多维联系正向正态云模型应用于TBM地质适应性倾向评价是可行的,评价准确率达90%,相较于常规多维云模型及其他计算方法,其吻合度更高、计算更简洁。

To solve the problems of ambiguity and multifactor interaction in the geological adaptability assessment of a tunnel boring machine(TBM),a multidimensional relationship forward normal cloud model evaluation method based on set pair analysis coupled with the multidimensional cloud model is proposesd.The characteristics of 12 TBM-based geological adaptability cases in 106 sections of tunnels in China are analyzed.In addition,10 typical indicators,including equipment parameters,geological conditions,and adverse geological problems,are selected to establish an evaluation index system.Each evaluation index is used as a one-dimensional variable of a multidimensional relational forward normal cloud model.According to the principle of isotropy and cloud theory,three appropriate cloud digital feature values are obtained to generate cloud droplets at each adaptive level.Then,according to the comprehensive certainty of the TBM geological adaptability for each adaptive level,the principle of maximum certainty is used todetermine the geological adaptability grade of a TBM.This comprehensively reflects the relationship between certainty and uncertainty between multiple factors in the evaluation.In addition,based on the comprehensive constant weight determined by the IFAHP,improved ICRC,and improved game theory combinatorial empowerment,the variable weight theory based on the factor space idea is used to determine the total level ranking weight of the indicator.Furthermore,the active intervention of indicators in the evaluation process is realized.The results show that the variable-weight multidimensional contact normal forward cloud model is feasible for evaluating the geological adaptability tendency of TBMs,and the evaluation accuracy is 90%.Compared with conventional multidimensional cloud models and other calculation methods,the degree of agreement is higher and the calculation is more concise.