住房限购政策与地方政府供地行为

Housing Purchase Restriction Policy and Local Government Land Supply

在城市化浪潮下,住房价格阶段性大幅上涨成为影响我国经济金融稳定的重要因素。政府主要采取限购住房等需求管理政策来稳定住房市场,而供给因素在房价稳定中的作用未得到充分考虑。本文试图从地方政府的土地财政行为视角出发,分析住房限购政策如何影响土地供给来探讨住房需求管理政策的效果。本文通过构建地方政府融资行为的动态均衡模型分析发现:住房限购政策会降低土地的供给;当限购政策取消时,由于需求释放而供给不足,会引起房价大幅度的反弹;地方政府对土地财政的依赖程度会影响上述效应大小。同时,本文基于城市面板数据的实证分析支持了以上结论。

Housing prices in China have become a critical factor affecting the country's economic and financial stability,particularly in the context of rapid urbanization.While demand-side policies such as housing purchase restrictions are often used to stabilize the market,the role of supply-side factors has received less attention.Using a dynamic equilibrium model that considers the land finance behavior of local governments,this paper examines how housing purchase restrictions affect land supply and the overall effectiveness of housing management policies.Our findings suggest that purchase restrictions can decrease land supply,leading to insufficient supply when restrictions are lifted,resulting in a substantial rebound of housing prices.The magnitude of this effect is influenced by the dependence of local governments on land finance.We confirm these results using urban panel data analysis.These findings highlight the need for policymakers to consider both demand-and supply-side factors in managing the housing market and suggest that local government financing practices play a critical role in the effectiveness of housing policies.