气候风险对我国保险需求的影响研究

Impact of Climate Risk on Insurance Demand in China

气候变化具有不可逆转性,正使人类社会面临前所未有的风险。气候风险作为一类不确定性风险,必然会对保险需求产生影响。本文基于《中国气象灾害年鉴》统计的气象灾害主要经济损失数据,实证检验了2005~2020年气候风险对中国31个省级行政区域保险需求的影响,以及不同异质性因素对上述影响的调节效应。结果发现:首先,气候风险的上升会增加当地的保险需求,且气候风险对人身保险需求的影响大于对财产保险需求的影响;其次,在不同经济增速下,气候风险对保险需求的促进作用存在显著差异,经济增速较低时保险需求对气候风险上升的反应更显著;继而,地区教育水平的差异显著影响了气候风险与保险需求的正相关性,教育水平越高的地区气候风险增加对保险需求的促进作用更显著;最后,气候风险对不同类型人身保险需求的影响存在差异,健康险需求受气候风险的影响最大,其次是意外伤害险和人寿险。因此,政府部门应高度重视日益加剧的气候变化及气候风险的影响,加强气候保险产品创新及体系建设,提升公众避险意识,积极改善保险结构失衡现状,以减少气候变化和气候风险对经济社会造成的负面影响。

Climate change poses unprecedented risks to human society and has significant implications for insurance demand.Using data on economic losses caused by meteorological disasters from the China Meteorological Disaster Yearbook,this article examines the impact of climate risk on insurance demand across 31 provinces and regions in China from 2005 to 2020,and investigates the role of different heterogeneous factors in this relationship.The results indicate that climate risk increases the demand for insurance,and that the positive impact is greater for life insurance than for property insurance.Moreover,the impact of climate risk on insurance demand varies depending on the rate of economic growth,with a more pronounced effect during periods of slow growth.Education levels also play a significant role,with higher levels of education promoting a stronger positive impact of climate risk on insurance demand.Finally,the study finds that different types of life insurance respond differently to climate risk,with health insurance demand being the most affected,followed by casualty insurance and life insurance.These findings have important implications for policy makers,who should prioritize the development of climate insurance products and systems to reduce the negative impact of climate change and risk onsociety.