2002~2020年中国河流环境质量演变及驱动因子分析

Analysis of Change and Driving Factors of River Environmental Quality in China from 2002 to 2020

基于2002~2020年河流环境质量、污染物排放和环境污染治理数据,采用典型相关分析和Spearman相关系数研究我国河流环境质量演变规律及其驱动因子,以期更科学地分析污染物排放和环境污染治理投资对流域环境影响.结果表明,2002~2020年中国河流环境质量得到明显改善,Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水占比由29.1%提升至87.4%,劣Ⅴ类水占比由40.9%下降至0.2%;废水排放总量由439.5亿t增加到849.1亿t,城镇生活污水排放量由232.3亿t增加到659.8亿t,工业废水排放量由207.2亿t减少到168亿t,环境治理投资由1106.6亿元增加到10638.9亿元.七大流域、浙闽片河流域、西南诸河流域和西北诸河流域Ⅰ~Ⅲ类水比例与工业源污染物排放呈负相关,与环境污染治理投资呈正相关;七大流域、浙闽片河流和西北诸河流域环境质量改善的首要措施是削减工业源污染物排放,污染物削减优先顺序均为:COD>NH_(4)^(+)-N>废水总量;西南诸河流域水环境质量改善的首要措施是增加环境污染治理投资,环境治理投资增加优先顺序为:工业污染源治理投资>城市环境基础设施建设投资和建设项目环保投资.研究结果可为“十四五”期间河流环境质量改善提供理论和决策依据.

According to the river environmental quality,pollutant emission,and investment in environmental pollution control from 2002-2020,the change law and driving factors of river environmental quality in China were evaluated using canonical correlation analysis and the Spearman correlation coefficient to analyze the influence between environmental and pollutant emission/investment in environmental pollution control.The results indicated that the river environmental quality was improved significantly based on the proportion of ClassⅠ-Ⅲincreasing from 29.1%to 87.4%and the proportion of inferior ClassⅤdecreasing from 40.9%to 0.2%from 2002-2020.The emission of wastewater and domestic wastewater increased from 4.395×10^(10)tons and 2.323×10^(10)tons to 8.491×10^(10)tons and 6.598×10^(10)tons,respectively.However,emissions of industrial wastewater decreased from 2.072×10^(10)tons to 1.680×10^(10)tons.Investment in environmental pollution control increased from 110.66 billion yuan to 1063.89 billion yuan.The proportion of ClassⅠ-Ⅲin seven major river basins,river basins in Zhejiang and Fujian,southwest river basins,and northwest river basins showed a negative correlation for industrial pollutant emissions and a positive correlation for investment in environmental pollution control.The primary measure for the seven major river basins,river basins in Zhejiang and Fujian,and northwest river basins cut down the industrial pollutant emissions,in the order of COD>NH_(4)^(+)-N>total wastewater.The primary measure for southwest river basins increased the investment in environmental pollution control,in the order of industrial investment in environmental pollution control>urban environmental infrastructure construction investment and environmental protection investment in construction projects.These results can provide theoretical and policy suggestions for the improvement of river environmental quality during the"14th Five-Year Plan"period.