中国纸和纸板出口价格的影响因素分析

The Factors Influencing the Export Price of Paper and Paper Board in China

基于2000—2020年中国纸和纸板出口相关数据,运用多元回归模型实证分析影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的因素。研究发现,废纸进口价格、其他竞争者价格、出口集中度、汇率是影响中国纸和纸板出口价格的关键因素。对中国3类主要出口品种的异质性分析显示,箱纸板出口价格的主要影响因素为废纸进口价格、资金成本、出口集中度、汇率,涂布印刷纸出口价格受到木浆进口价格、全球涂布印刷纸需求量、对外贸易依存度、汇率的影响,包装盒纸出口价格受到废纸进口价格、对外贸易依存度、汇率、环境保护的共同影响。基于此提出提升纸和纸板出口竞争力的对策建议。

Based on the relevant data of China’s paper and paperboard exports from 2000 to 2020,the multiple regression model is used to empirically analyze the factors that affect China’s paper and paperboard export prices.The results show that the import price of recovered paper,the price of other competitors,the concentration of exports,and the exchange rate are the key factors affecting the export price of China’s paper and paperboard.The heterogeneity analysis of China’s three main export varieties shows that the main factors affecting the export price of carton board are the import price of recovered paper,capital cost,export concentration,and exchange rate;the export price of coated printing paper is affected by the import price of wood pulp,the global demand for coated printing paper,foreign trade dependence,and exchange rate,the export price of case material paper is jointly influenced by the import price of recovered paper,foreign trade dependence,exchange rate,and environmental protection.Based on this,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to enhance the export competitiveness of paper and board.