双循环技术溢出视角下中国产业技术进步的网络效应研究——基于全球生产网络下的全要素生产率增长与传导测算

The Network Effect of China's Industrial Technology Progress from the Perspective of Technology Spillovers in Dual Circulation:Measurement of TFP Growth and Propagation Based on Global Production Networks

全球生产网络的技术溢出传导效应打破了技术进步的独立性假设,而以往全要素生产率测算较少考虑网络循环效应的影响。本文构建了一个多部门一般均衡模型来考察技术进步的网络传导效应,结合“空间—时变”随机前沿参数估计方法和国内国际循环外溢乘数的分解,实证考察了双循环条件下国家和产业层面的全要素生产率增长及其溢出效应。研究发现,考察期内中国的全要素生产率增速呈逐渐放缓态势,其中国际循环的网络效应在金融危机后受全球价值链收缩的冲击较大,而国内循环的网络效应则为产业技术升级提供了重要的内生动力,制造业是中国全要素生产率增长的重要引擎,中国技术进步的网络效应对全球全要素生产率增长的贡献呈上升趋势,说明中国不仅是世界经济增长的引擎,也是推动世界技术进步的重要引擎。

The technology spillover propagation in global production networks implies that the assumption of independence of technological progress is questionable.However,the previous methods of total factor productivity(TFP)measurement rarely consider these network circulation effects.In this paper,we first develop a multi-sector general equilibrium model to investigate the network propagation effect of technological progress.With a parameter estimation method of"spatial time-varying"stochastic frontier and the decomposition algorithm of spillover multiplier under domestic and international circulation,we empirically investigate the TFP growth and spillover effects under the dual-circulation at the national and industrial levels.Our empirical results find that during the investigation period,the TFP growth in China is gradually slowing down,and the network effect through international circulation has been greatly affected by the contraction of global value chains since the global financial crisis,but the network effect through domestic circulation has provided important internal dynamic for industrial technology upgrading.The manufacturing industry is the most important driving force for China's TFP growth.The contribution of the network spillover effects of China's technological progress to the global TFP growth presents an upward trend.It shows that China has become not only the engine of world economic growth,but also an important engine of world technological progress.