国际液化天然气现货招标贸易特点分析与建议

Analysis of the characteristics of international spot LNG tender trade and suggestions

随着LNG国际贸易的发展,LNG现货贸易所占比重逐步提升,采购招标或销售招标成为现货贸易的重要方式。招标贸易通常严格控制参与范围并涉及企业商业秘密,市场参与者常常难以整体把握国际LNG现货招标贸易情况。基于对国际LNG现货招标历史数据的分析整理,本文尝试分析国际LNG现货招标贸易的特点,发现近年来国际LNG现货招标批次快速增长,采购招标略多于销售招标;南亚、东北亚采购招标最多,西非、澳洲销售招标最多;单次招标的平均采购量或销售量稳定在2船左右;招标贸易平均每年成交约400船,招标成交量占现货总贸易量约20%~30%;平均截标时间逐年缩短至2~3日;中国企业的现货招标贸易活动迅速增加,但2022年锐减。当前国际LNG现货招标贸易存在市场流动性不足、价格指数不成熟等问题,建议中国企业有效把握招标时机,适当扩大招标范围,适当控制截标时间,灵活设置招标条款,并将招标采购与双边谈判有机结合。

With the development of the global LNG market,the spot LNG trade is increasing its share in the international LNG trade and tenders for purchase and sale are becoming an import measure for spot LNG trade.However,tender trade usually strictly controls the scope of participation and involves commercial secrets and it is ofen dificult for market participants to grasp the overall situation of international spot LNG tender trade.Based on the analysis of historical data of international spot LNG tenders,this paper attempts to analyze the characteristics of international spot LNG tender trade,and finds that the number of international spot LNG tenders is growing rapidly in recent years and there are slightly more purchase tenders than sale tenders.South Asia and Northeast Asia have the most purchase tenders and West Africa and Australia have the most sale tenders.The average number of cargoes(for purchase or sale)per tender stabilizes at around 2 and about 400 cargoes are awarded through spot LNG tenders,accounting for 20%~30%of the total spot LNG volume.The average duration of spot LNG tenders is shortened to 2-3 days and the spot tender activities of Chinese enterprises are rapidly increasing but sharply decreasing in 2022.The current international spot LNG tender trade suffers from insufficient market liquidity and immature price indices.It is recommended that Chinese enterprises effectively grasp the timing of tenders,appropriately expand the scope of tenders,appropriately control the cut-of time,flexibly set the terms and conditions of tenders,and combine bilateral negotiations with tenders for the purchase of spot LNG cargoes.