基于技术距离的知识溢出与产业升级--来自中美德制造业产品空间的微观证据

Knowledge Spillovers and Industrial Upgrading Based on Technological Distance:Micro-evidence from the Manufacturing Product Space of China,the United States and Germany

以知识溢出为切入点,通过揭示中、美、德制造业的发展现状及产业升级的路径差异来为中国制造业发展寻找可借鉴的产业升级模式。以近30年全球2 000余种制造业300万条贸易数据作为研究样本,并以中、美、德三国作为研究对象,综合运用社会网络方法、产品空间理论和Logit回归模型,深入探讨中、美、德制造业知识溢出在产业升级过程中的作用机制。研究发现,中国制造业产品空间核心区域的产品尚未形成规模化的生产模式;中国制造业的产业升级更多遵循渐进性发展路径,盲目追求知识溢出的效果反而可能带来风险;中国加入WTO以来,不仅能够依靠生产能力累积而实现渐进式产业升级,还可以在产品生产能力累积与知识溢出强度的交互作用下,通过破坏式创新实现产业升级。

Take knowledge spillover as the starting point,and seeks for reference for the development of China's manufacturing industry by revealing the development status of the manufacturing industry in China,the United States,and Germany and the differences in the path of industrial upgrading.Taking 3 million trade data of more than 2000 kinds of manufacturing industries around the world in the past 30 years as the research sample,and taking China,the United States,and Germany as the research objects,comprehensively using the social network method,product space theory and Logit regression model,the paper has an in-depth analysis on the mechanism of manufacturing knowledge spillover in the process of industrial upgrading in China,the United States,and Germany.The study found that:the products in the core area of China's manufacturing product space have not yet formed a large-scale production model;the industrial upgrading of China's manufacturing industry more follows the"incremental development"path,and the blind pursuit of the effect of knowledge spillover may bring risks;Since it entered WTO,China can not only achieve incremental industrial upgrading by relying on the accumulation of production capacity,but also achieve industrial upgrading through disruptive innovation under the interaction of the accumulation of product production capacity and the intensity of knowledge spillovers.