西方国家对俄罗斯石油禁运及限价的市场影响分析

Analysis of the market impact of the Western countries' oil embargo and price cap on Russia

西方国家对俄罗斯海运原油和油品出口限价及欧盟禁运令分别于2022年12月5日和2023年2月5日生效。“限价”是西方考虑油价水平和石油市场供需平衡条件下限制俄罗斯石油出口收入的有效策略,其目标是在油价稳定与削减俄石油出口收入之间取得平衡。“限价令”对俄罗斯原油出口影响相对有限,但油品出口可能面临较大影响,俄罗斯将被迫加大原油出口量以弥补油品出口减量;欧洲短期内可能面临柴油短缺;后期国际柴油价格有可能走高,裂解价差上升。未来国际油价运行将显著受到西方限价指引的负面影响,同时加速全球海运石油贸易格局重塑。“限价令”标志着西方与资源国定价权博弈进入新阶段,建议中国石油企业在油气贸易中探索建立人民币结算机制。

The West imposed an embargo on seaborne crude oil and a price cap on oil products for Russia on December 5,2022 and February 5,2023,respectively.Price cap is an effective strategy to limit Russia's oil export revenues under the conditions of oil price level and oil market supply-demand balance and its goal is to strike a balance between oil price stability and reduction of Russian oil export revenues.The impact of the price cap on Russian crude oil export is relatively limited but the impact on oil product exports may be significant.Russia will be forced to increase crude oil exports to make up for the reduction in oil exports.Europe may face a shortage of diesel fuel in the short term and international diesel fuel prices are likely to rise in the later stages,leading to an increase in cracking price difference.The future international oil prices will be significantly affected by the negative impact of Western price cap guidelines,while accelerating the reshaping of the global maritime oil trade pattern.The price cap order marks a new stage in the pricing power between the West and resource countries.It is recommended that Chinese oil companies explore the establishment of a RMB settlement mechanism in oil and gas trades.