中国天然气市场发展2022年回顾与2023年展望

Development of China's natural gas market in 2022 and outlook for 2023

2022年,中国天然气市场在经济增速下滑、供给成本飙升、能源竞争加剧三重压力下,表观消费量仅为3663亿立方米,出现快速发展期以来首次下降;长输管道里程新增3000千米,LNG接收站新建成2座、扩建1座,地下储气库投产10座。国产气保供应、稳安全,但进口资源特别是现货LNG大幅减少,充分反映出行业“资源供应把控力、市场成长驱动力、行业发展凝聚力”不足的问题。2023年,在社会经济恢复、能源政策刺激、资源供应增加、供气成本下降等有利因素带动下,工业生产、商业运营、交通运输等活动增加,天然气需求恢复。18家燃气电厂陆续建成投产,带动电力用气需求增加;原料用能不纳入能源消费总量控制,化工用气空间扩大。预计全年新增市场需求量190亿~222亿立方米;国产与进口资源可达210亿~260亿立方米,资源供应可满足市场需求。为提高天然气在新型能源体系中的地位,建议在2023年抓紧修复存量市场,开发增量市场,投入煤制油气战略基地建设,提升海外资源进口多元化水平。

In 2022,China's natural gas market,under the triple pressure of declining economic growth,soaring supply costs,and intensifying energy competition,saw apparent consumption of only 366.3 billion cubic meters with the first decline since the rapid development period.The length of long-distance pipelines increased by 3,000 kilometers,two new LNG receiving terminals have been built as well as one has been expanded,and 10 underground gas storage stations have been put into operation.Domestic gas has ensured the supply and stabilized the security,but the significant reduction of imported resources,especially spot LNG,fully reflected the lack of “resource supply control,market growth drive,and industry development cohesion” in the industry.In 2023,the demand for natural gas will recover as industrial production,commercial operations,transportation and other activities increase,driven by such favorable factors as socio-economic recovery,energy policy stimulation,increased resource availability,and lower gas supply costs.18 gas-fired power plants have been built and put into operation,driving the demand for electricity and gas increasing.The energy consumption of raw materials is not included in the total energy consumption control,and the space for chemical gas consumption is expanded.The annual new market demand is expected to be 19 billion to 22.2 billion cubic meters and domestic and imported resources can reach 21 billion to 26 billion cubic meters,which means the supply of resources can meet the market demand.In order to improve the position of natural gas in the new energy system,it is suggested that in 2023,we should quickly restore the existing markets,develop the incremental markets,invest in the construction of coal-to-oil and gas strategic base,and improve the diversification level of overseas resources import.