市场缓慢复苏 但仍面临巨大挑战——2022年世界和中国石化行业综述及2023年展望

Review of global and China petrochemical industry in 2022 and outlook for 2023

2022年全球石化行业面临全球通货膨胀、地缘局势紧张和供应链中断多重冲击带来的危机,但仍实现了大量新建项目落地和区域间贸易的增长,全球石化市场从新冠病毒疫情3年来的低谷中缓慢复苏。2023年,中国石化市场需求的回归为全球石化行业带来了新的增长动力,全球石化行业扩能放缓也为市场供需格局调整和行业盈利回升创造了有利条件。但是,上游供应恢复速度远超下游消费增速失衡局面,区域市场和贸易格局的重新划分,以及疫情、金融和通货膨胀风险都为2023年的石化市场带来巨大挑战。预计全球和中国石化行业将在2023年下半年迎来整体复苏,步入常态化发展阶段。

The global petrochemical industry faced a crisis brought about by the multiple shocks of global inflation,geopolitical tensions,and supply chain disruptions in 2022,but still achieved significant new project landings and growth in interregional trade,with the global petrochemical market slowly recovering from the 3-year trough of pandemic.In 2023,the return of China's petrochemical market demand brings new growth momentum to the global petrochemical industry,and the slowdown in global petrochemical industry capacity expansion creates favorable conditions for market supply and demand pattern adjustment and industry profitability rebound.However,the imbalance of upstream supply recovery far outpacing downstream consumption,the redistribution of regional markets and trade patterns,as well as pandemic,financial and inflation risks also pose huge challenges for the petrochemical market in 2023.The global and Chinese petrochemical industry is expected to see an overall recovery in the second half of 2023 and would enter a phase of normal development.