中国成品油市场2022年回顾与2023年供需预测

Review of China's refined oil market in 2022 and forecast of supply and demand in 2023

2022年疫情防控工作贯穿全年社会生活,消费属性突出的汽油和航空煤油消费被抑制,替代能源持续增加,中国成品油消费量为3.26亿吨,与上年相比减少7%,创历史最大降幅。受需求萎缩、出口配额从紧管理等影响,成品油生产侧出现产能上升但产量下降的情况。汽柴油替代能源超过6500万吨,其中LNG占比达到63%。2023年,经济建设重新成为社会发展重心,消费修复,成品油增长动力回归;新炼厂产能释放,成品油市场将呈现供需两旺局面。预计2023年中国成品油消费量为3.60亿吨,与上年相比增长10.5%,汽油和煤油消费量将在低基数上实现两位数的高增长,柴油消费量微增;汽柴油替代能源消费量预计增长14%以上,增量主要来自电动力。

In 2022,pandemic prevention and control was carried out throughout the year in social life,consumption of gasoline and aviation kerosene with prominent consumption attributes was curbed,and alternative energy sources continued to increase,with China's refined oil consumption at 326 million tons,down 7% compared to the previous year,the largest decline in history.On the production side,capacity increased but output declined due to shrinking demand and tight management of export quotas.The alternative energy source for gasoline and diesel exceeded 65 million tons,of which LNG accounted for 63%.In 2023,economic construction will once again become the focus of social development,consumption will recover,and the growth momentum of refined oil will return.With the release of new refinery production capacity,the refined oil market will show a booming situation of supply and demand.China's consumption of refined oil products in 2023 is expected to be 360 million tons,up 10.5% from the previous year.The consumption of gasoline and kerosene will achieve high double-digit growth on a low base,and diesel consumption will increase slightly year-on-year.The consumption of alternative energy is expected to increase by more than 14%,with the main increase coming from electric power.