基于MaxEnt模型预测马来鳄在中国的潜在生境

Potential habitat prediction of Tomistoma schlegelii in China based on MaxEnt model

为探究马来鳄在中国的潜在适宜生存区及各环境变量对其地理分布的影响,文章基于马来鳄地理分布记录和7个环境变量,应用最大熵(maximum entropy,MaxEnt)模型模拟马来鳄在中国的潜在分布,利用贡献率、置换重要性及Jackknife检验来评估制约马来鳄地理分布的环境变量。结果表明:马来鳄在中国的高度适宜区主要位于广西西南部、广东南部、福建西南部及台湾地区东北部;影响马来鳄分布的主要气候因子为最暖季度降水量、最冷月份最低温度及最干月份降水量,满足最冷月份最低温度大于21.4℃、最干月份降水量大于116 mm、年气温变化范围在6.6~11.0℃之间、最暖季度降水量保持在550~1530 mm之间的环境最适宜马来鳄的生存。该研究结果可为马来鳄生物资源的保护和在适宜分布区进行人工繁育提供理论依据。

In order to explore the potential suitable living region of Tomistoma schlegelii in China and the impact of various environmental variables on their geographical distribution,based on the geographical distribution records of Tomistoma schlegelii and seven environmental variables,maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model is used to simulate the potential distribution of Tomistoma schlegelii in China.Contribution rate,replacement importance and Jackknife test are used to evaluate the environmental variables that potentially play important roles in restricting the geographical distribution of Tomistoma schlegelii.The results show that the highly suitable living region for Tomistoma schlegelii in China is mainly located in southwestern Guangxi,southern Guangdong,southwestern Fujian and northeastern Taiwan provinces,China.The analysis of environmental variables shows that the main climate factors affecting the distribution of Tomistoma schlegelii are the precipitation in the warmest quarter,the lowest temperature in the coldest month and the precipitation in the driest month.It is concluded that when the minimum temperature in the coldest month is greater than 21.4℃,the precipitation in the driest month is greater than 116 mm,the annual temperature variation range is within 6.6-11.0℃,and the precipitation in the warmest quarter is maintained between 550-1530 mm,the environment is most suitable for the survival of Tomistoma schlegelii.The results provide a theoretical basis for the protection of Tomistoma schlegelii and their artificial breeding in the suitable region in China.