帕隆藏布流域冰川泥石流易发性研究

Glacial Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment in Palongzangbu Basin

帕隆藏布流域地处藏东南高海拔,高地应力,高烈度,高地温的地形急变带,现代海洋性冰川分布,流域内冰川泥石流频发,合理评价流域内冰川泥石流易发性对工程建设具有重要意义。考虑到目前流行的机器学习算法应用的局限性,采用因子分析和证据权模型相耦合的方法建立易发性评估模型。将帕隆藏布划分为169个子流域,通过遥感解译和现场调查确定泥石流发育情况,并选取14个与冰川泥石流相关的影响因子进行分析。结果表明:冰川泥石流极高易发区集中在帕隆藏布干流古乡至通麦段、波堆藏布上游段、瓤达曲小流域段,共包括104个子流域,总流域面积为2308.4 km^(2),占所有子流域面积的24%。

Palongzangbo watershed is located in the topographic abrupt change zone southeast of Tibet,with high altitude,high ground stress,high intensity,and high ground temperature.Marine glaciers are distributed and glacier debris flows occur frequently in this watershed.Reasonable glacier debris flows susceptibility mapping has important significance to engineering construction.Considering the application limitation of current popular machine learning methods,This paper adopt the coupling method of factor analysis and weight of evidence model to establish the susceptibility assessment model.The Palongzangpo basin is divided into 169 sub-basins in the study,in which the development of debris flows occurred in sub-basins are determined by remote sensing interpretation and field investigation,and 14 factors associated with glacial debris flow are selected for analysis.The results show that the areas of Guxiang to Tongmai in Palongzangbo mainstream,Boduizangbo upper stream,and Rangdaqu sub-basin has very high susceptibility,including 104 sub-basins with a total watershed area of 2308.4 km^(2),accounting for 24%of all sub-basins.