湖南省农业供给与城市消费市场需求系统仿真模拟研究

System Simulation Research on Agricultural Supply and Urban Consumer Market Demand in Hunan Province

通过探索性地构建湖南省农业供给与城市消费市场需求系统动力学模型,设定现状延续型、强需求型、强供给型和综合调控型4种不同情景进行仿真模拟,分析湖南省农业供给与城市消费市场需求未来变动情况及其均衡状况。结果表明:(1)4种情景中,湖南省农业供给系统与城市消费市场需求系统的关键变量均呈增长趋势,且综合调控供需两端对系统变量影响最大。其中,综合调控型情景下,农业供给水平和城市居民农产品消费需求分别为14.466和10.326,年均增长率分别为17.20%和3.97%;(2)供需比在4种情景下均渐趋均衡,其中仅综合调控型情景在长时间序列中供需比均接近1。研究表明,只追求供给或需求单方强化,均较难实现供需均衡,需要全面兼顾。

Through the exploratory construction of the system dynamics model of agricultural supply and urban consumer market demand in Hunan Province,four different simulation scenarios,status quo continuation,strong demand,strong supply and comprehensive regulation were set up to analyze the future changes and equilibrium status of agricultural supply and urban consumer market demand in Hunan Province.The results showed that:(1)The key variables of the agricultural supply system and the urban consumer market demand system in Hunan Province in all four scenarios showed an increasing trend,and the integrated regulation of both supply and demand had the greatest impact on the system variables.Among them,under the comprehensive regulation and control scenario,the agricultural supply level and the agricultural consumption demand of urban residents were 14.466 and 10.326 respectively,with an average annual growth rate of 17.20%and 3.97%respectively;(2)The supply-demand ratio in the four scenarios gradually balanced,and only the supply-demand ratio of the comprehensive regulation scenario was close to 1 in the long time series.It was difficult to achieve the supply and demand balance only by pursuing the unilateral strengthening of supply or demand.Comprehensive consideration was required.