大国科技竞争背景下韩国的政策选择:三边关系下的非对称依赖关系分析

South Korea’s Policy Choices amid Great Power Competition in Science and Technology:An Analysis of Asymmetric Dependence in Trilateral Relations

随着中美战略竞争加剧,美国意图重组全球半导体产业链,以减少产业对华依赖,并限制中国科技的发展。由于韩国是美国同盟中电子信息科技发展水平最高的国家,韩国的政策选择将影响美国全球半导体战略。本文借用“非对称依赖”的概念,提出分析三边关系下国家间非对称依赖程度的框架。在两个大国竞争的背景下,中等国家对某一大国的非对称依赖程度,取决于另一大国能否提供替代方案。韩国半导体产业在芯片设计软件、知识产权核、制造设备等领域高度依赖于美国,而中国难以在高端设备和技术方面提供替代方案,因此,韩国对美国的非对称依赖程度高。另一方面,韩国半导体产业虽依赖中国市场和原材料,但美国及其盟友一定程度上具备提供替代方案的潜力,韩国对中国的非对称依赖程度有限。在中美科技竞争的背景下,韩国对大国的非对称依赖导致其短期内陷入两难;为了避免长期的战略脆弱性,韩国已有意推动产业渐进式对华脱钩。同时,韩国也期望通过深化与美国的产业合作,加强与美国的战略关系,扩大自身在全球产业链中的作用。

As China-US strategic competition intensifies,the US strives to restructure the global semiconductor supply chain in an attempt to reduce the industry’s dependence on China and constrain China’s technology development.Since South Korea has the most advanced information technology among US allies,its policy choices would greatly affect the US global semiconductor strategy.Drawing on the idea of“asymmetric dependence,”this paper proposes a framework for analyzing asymmetric dependence in a trilateral relationship.In the context of competition between two great powers,the degree of a middle power’s asymmetric dependence on one great power depends very much on whether the other major power can offer alternatives.As the South Korean semiconductor industry relies heavily on the US in areas such as chip design software,essential intellectual property and manufacturing equipment where China could hardly provide alternatives,it has a strong asymmetric dependence on the US.In contrast,while the South Korean semiconductor industry is highly dependent on China for markets and raw materials,the US and its allies have the potential to partly provide alternatives,thus limiting South Korea’s asymmetric dependence on China.In the context of China-US technological competition,South Korea’s asymmetric dependence on both great powers faces a dilemma in the short run.To reduce its long-term strategic vulnerability,South Korea is purposefully promoting industrial decoupling from China in an incremental fashion.At the same time,South Korea also expects to strengthen its strategic relationship with the US and expand its influence in the global semiconductor supply chain by enhancing its industrial cooperation with the US.