加速退化试验测量不确定度评定方法

Measurement uncertainty evaluation method for accelerated degradation testing

受测量分散性、仪器误差等因素影响,加速退化试验中存在测量不确定性问题。提出了加速退化试验测量不确定度的传播与评定方法,以提高试验评估结果的准确性和可信性。首先,介绍了加速退化试验中的测量不确定度来源,并结合维纳过程加速退化模型参数估计过程分析了测量不确定度的传播效应;其次,分别利用测量不确定度指南评定法(GUM)和蒙特卡洛法,量化评定了加速退化试验中性能观测数据测量不确定度对正常应力水平下产品可靠性评估结果的影响;最后,采用某型空间用高分子传感器案例对本文所提方法进行验证,并针对2种方法的估计结果进行了对比分析,验证了所提出方法的有效性。

Measurement dispersion,instrument errors and other factors bring about the measurement uncertainty problem in the accelerated degradation test.We propose a propagation and evaluation method for the measurement uncertainty of the accelerated degradation test to improve the accuracy and credibility of the test evaluation results.The sources of measurement uncertainty in accelerated degradation tests are firstly introduced and the propagation ef⁃fect of measurement uncertainty in the parameter estimation process of the Wiener process accelerated degradation model analyzed.The Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement(GUM)method and Monte Carlo method(MCM)are then used respectively to evaluate the influence of performance observation data measurement uncertainty on product reliability evaluation results at normal stress levels.Finally,the accelerated degradation test of an actual type polymer sensor is conducted to verify the proposed methods,and comparative analysis of the results verifies the effectiveness of the proposed methods.