基于未确知测度理论的高校消防安全评价研究

Fire Safety Assessment for Universities Based on Uncertainty Measurement

为控制高校火灾事故发生频率和减少校园火灾伤亡人数,提高高校消防管理与应急能力,结合高校建筑特点,通过现场测试、专家打分等手段,构建包含高校师生职工、消防机械、消防管理、环境以及消防应急能力5个一级指标和23个二级指标的多因素高校消防安全评价体系.对体系中定性指标进行半定量化处理,对某些不能直接应用绝对数值分级的指标进行转化处理,依据未确知测度理论和层次分析法与评价体系结合,将该评价模型应用于吉林省某高校,验证该体系的科学性及评价方法的可靠性.针对评价结果提出一系列消防安全管理问题与改进措施,为高校消防安全管理提供科学依据.

Frequency to control the fire accident and reduce the campus fire casualties,fire management in colleges and universities and emergency ability,combining with the characteristics of university buildings and through the field test and expert scoring method,build includes worker college teachers and students,fire control machinery,fire management,environment and fire emergency capacity 5 secondary indicators and 23 tertiary index of fire safety evaluation system.Semi-quantitative treatment is carried out on the qualitative indicators in the system,and some indicators that cannot be directly applied to absolute numerical classification are transformed.Based on the unascertained measure theory and analytic hierarchy process combined with the evaluation system,the evaluation model is applied to a university in Jilin Province to verify the scientific nature of the system and the reliability of the evaluation method.According to the evaluation results,a series of fire safety management problems and improvement measures are put forward to provide scientific basis for the fire safety management in colleges and universities.