考虑道路中断与伤情恶化的震后初期伤员调度鲁棒优化

Robust Optimization of Casualty Scheduling in the Initial Stage Post-Earthquake with Road Disruption and Injury Deterioration

震后初期应急救灾的重点是伤员救治。科学组织应急救援活动,将地震灾害造成的人员伤亡降至最低,对抢险救灾具有重大价值。针对震后初期应急救援的特点,考虑伤员伤情恶化、道路中断、伤员数量不确定、医疗点资源限制等因素,研究震后初期伤员分类与运送调度的决策优化问题,构建了以伤员创伤指数最小化为目标的鲁棒优化模型,采用CPLEX 12.8.0对模型进行求解。最后,以雅安芦山地震应急医疗救援为例,验证模型和求解方法的可行性和有效性。结果表明:考虑道路中断情景后,即使灾区路网中的部分道路中断,其优化结果仍具可靠性和稳健性;考虑伤员数量的不确定后,决策者需基于风险偏好程度,在伤员救治和系统可靠性之间权衡,以实现最优的伤员调度效果。

The focus of emergency relief is the treatment of casualties in initial stage postearthquake.Scientifically organizing emergency rescue activities to minimize casualties caused by earthquake disasters is of great value for emergency relief.According to the characteristics of early post-earthquake emergency rescue,a decision-making optimization problem of the classification and transportation scheduling of the wounded in the early post-earthquake was studied considering the deterioration of the injury,the interruption of the road,the uncertainty of the number of the wounded,and the limitation of medical resources.A robust optimization model with the objective of minimizing the trauma index of the wounded was constructed.The proposed model was solved by CPLEX 12.8.0.Finally,a case study of Lushan earthquake emergency medical rescue in Ya'an was conducted to verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the model and solution method.The results show that the optimization results are reliable and robust even if some roads in the disaster area are interrupted.Considering the uncertainty of the number of the wounded,the decision-makers need to make a tradeoff between the casualty and the reliability of the system based on the degree of risk preference,so as to find the best casualty scheduling scheme.