地方政府隐性债务、信贷配置与区域商业银行脆弱性

Implicit Debt of Local Governments,Credit Allocation and Vulnerability of Regional Commercial Banks

选取91家区域商业银行样本,采用2011—2020年的面板数据,研究地方政府隐性债务对区域商业银行脆弱性的影响。实证分析发现:第一,地方政府隐性债务水平与区域商业银行脆弱性呈正相关关系,地方政府隐性债务水平的上升加剧区域商业银行脆弱性程度。第二,信贷配置在地方政府隐性债务对区域商业银行的影响中起部分中介作用,地方政府隐性债务水平的上升通过增加区域商业银行信贷资金投向地方国有经济部门的比例进而加剧区域商业银行脆弱性程度。第三,进一步的异质性分析表明,地方政府隐性债务水平提高使得城市商业银行、政府控股银行、非上市区域商业银行脆弱性程度上升更为显著。未来应强化区域商业银行的外部监管制度,优化区域商业银行信贷资金配置,对地方政府债务扩张行为建立追责制度,抑制系统性金融风险的累积。

A sample of 91 regional commercial banks is selected and panel data from 2011 to 2020 is used to study the impact of local government implicit debt on the vulnerability of regional commercial banks.The empirical analysis shows that:first,the level of local government implicit debt is positively correlated with the vulnerability of regional commercial banks,and the increase of local government implicit debt intensifies the vulnerability of regional commercial banks.Second,credit allocation plays a partial intermediary role in the influence of local government's implicit debt on regional commercial banks.The rise of local government's implicit debt level increases the vulnerability of banks by increasing the proportion of regional commercial banks'credit funds invested in local state-owned economic sectors.Third,further heterogeneity analysis shows that the increase in the level of implicit local government debt makes the increase in vulnerability of urban commercial banks,government-controlled banks,and non-listed regional commercial banks more significant.In the future,the external regulatory system of regional commercial banks should be strengthened,the allocation of credit funds by regional commercial banks should be optimized,and a recourse system for local government debt expansion should be established to curb the accumulation of systemic financial risks.