水生态文明建设质量的时空演化评估

Evaluation on spatiotemporal evolution of water ecological civilization construction quality

基于习近平总书记提出的新时期治水思路设计水生态文明建设质量研究框架和评估指标体系,采用“纵横向”拉开档次法和探索性空间数据分析法评估了水生态文明建设质量的时序变迁规律和空间演化趋势。结果表明:2004—2020年水生态文明建设质量变迁先后经历了缓震荡期和快增长期,总体上呈相对稳定的上升趋势,兼具“梯度演化”和“中游驱动”的变化特征;水生态文明建设质量具有空间正相关性,存在城市群极化现象,且以长三角地区最为显著;“十四五”期间是中、西部地区发挥后发优势的重要战略机遇期,发挥长三角、京津冀等领先优势城市群的辐射带动效应尤为重要。

Based on the idea of water control in the new era proposed by General Secretary Xi Jinping,a research framework and an evaluation index system of water ecological civilization construction quality were constructed,and the“vertical and horizontal”grading method and exploratory spatial data analysis method were used to evaluate the temporal change and spatial evolution trends of water ecological civilization construction quality.The results show that the evolution of water ecological civilization construction quality from 2004 to 2020 could be divided into a slow shock period and a fast growth period,demonstrating a relatively stable upward trend on the whole,with“gradient evolution”and“midstream driving”characteristics;the water ecological civilization construction quality has the characteristics of spatial positive correlation,along with a phenomenon of urban agglomeration polarization,especially in the Yangtze River Delta;the period of Fourteenth Five-Year Plan is an important strategic opportunity period for the central and western regions in China to give play to their late-developing advantages,and it is particularly important to give play to the radiative driving effect of leading urban agglomerations such as the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomerations.