资本账户双向开放下的长期经济平衡增长

Long-term Balanced Economic Growth under Two-way Capital Account Liberalization

我国资本账户开放日益深入,厘清资本账户开放的经济效应对实现经济健康可持续发展具有重要意义。基于TVP-SV-VAR模型和分位数回归模型,将前沿的经济在险增长研究框架引入资本账户双向开放的经济效益研究中,从金融稳定的视角深入探讨资本账户双向开放对长期经济平衡增长的影响。研究表明:(1)随着资本账户流入与流出的非同步开放,流入开放政策对经济增长的影响程度越来越小,而资本账户流出开放成为打通资本账户开放对经济增长促进机制的关键点;(2)双向资本账户开放会导致金融稳定性下降,但金融稳定对经济增长的影响则没有特定的模式;(3)资本账户双向开放对经济增长下行风险具有正向的直接影响,但会通过降低金融稳定性间接地加剧经济增长下行风险,且后者的影响程度更大。

Mainstream economic theories emphasize the benefits of capital account liberalization.However,whether developing countries can benefit from it remains to be proved by empirical evidence.The prerequisites for capital account liberalization,such as institutional quality and financial development in developing countries,are still under investigation and undergoes its optimization.Recklessly opening the capital account can hardly achieve the expected effect of promoting economic growth.Therefore,for China,prudent selection of the timing and sequence of capital account liberalization and optimizing the level of economic development simultaneously exert a key role in releasing the economic benefits of capital account liberalization.Firstly,a series of hierarchical weights are designed to capture the intensity of policy changes and reconstruct the index of two-way capital account liberalization.Secondly,we conduct a time-varying parameter stochastic volatility vector autoregression(TVP-SV-VAR)model to analyze the index of two-way capital account liberalization,financial stability index and economic growth index,and comprehensively analyze the impact of two-way capital account liberalization on economic growth,especially the transmission role of financial stability.Finally,the impulse responses in TVP-SV-VAR are brought into the quantile regression to estimate the impact of capital account liberalization on economic downside risk,which is measured by the 5%conditional quantile value of economic growth.By weighing the downside risks of economic growth and economic growth,we put forward reasonable policy recommendations on the two-way capital account liberalization.From the two perspectives of economic growth and the downside risk of economic growth,we have discussed the impact of two-way capital account liberalizaton on long-term balanced economic development and the transmission mechanism of financial stability under Growth at Risk(GaR)framework.The main conclusions are as follows.(1)Capital account inflow liberalization has a restraining effect on economic growth in the short term but it promotes economic growth in the long run.However,such impact becomes weaker in recent years.With the non-synchronous liberalization of capital account inflows and outflows,the liberalization of capital account outflows becomes the key point to promote economic growth.(2)From the perspective of the transmission mechanism of financial stability,capital account liberalization is harmful to financial stability.However,the relationship between financial stability and economic growth changes over time.In economic crisis,two-way capital account liberalization has a long-term negative impact on economic growth,while there is no specific pattern for the indirect effects of two-way capital account liberalization on economic growth in times of economic stability.(3)Both capital account inflows and outflows liberalization have positive direct impacts on the downside risk of economic growth but will indirectly aggravate the downside risk of economic growth by reducing financial stability.Because of the greater impact of the latter,the two-way capital account liberalization leads to a stronger and longer downward pressure on the economy.Relaxing capital account outflow control should be the focus of the next step of capital account liberalization.In fact,China’s capital account liberalization always follows the basic principle of“inflow priors to outflow”and“the inflow is encouraged and the outflow is regulated”.Compared with“inflow”,“outflow”is still relatively slow in China.Steadily promoting the capital account outflow liberalization is conducive to achieving balanced economic development and accelerating the construction of a“dual circulation”strategic pattern.In addition,the capital account liberalization must be coordinated with the improvement of financial market management.In the international context of capital account liberalization,the stability of the financial sector is easily affected by international capital flows.Therefore,improving the financial supervision system and strengthening macro-prudential supervision are both the top priority of financial work and the important foundation of capital account liberalization.