基于情景推演的应急物资调拨动态优化模型研究

Research on Dynamic Optimization Model of Emergency Supplies Allocation Based on Scenario Deduction

由于地震灾害的破坏性及情景演变的复杂性,会导致在物资调拨过程中受灾点数量及需求量发生变化,造成初始应急物资调拨方案无法适应新的情况,从而影响其执行及实施效果。在分析情景演变过程对受灾点数量及需求量变化影响的基础上,提出了基于情景推演的应急物资调拨动态优化模型,对地震发生后应急物资调拨的整个变化过程及物资调拨方案重优化思路进行了动态描述,并通过算例验证了其有效性。

In light of the destructiveness of earthquake disasters and the complexity of scenario evolution which would lead to changes in the number of disaster-stricken points and the volume of demand in the emergency supplies allocation process,resulting in the inability of the initial emergency supplies allocation plan to cope with the new situation,thus affecting its implementation and effectiveness.Therefore,based on an analysis of the impact of the scenario evolution process on the changes in the number of disaster-stricken points and the volume of demand for emergency supplies,we proposed a dynamic optimization model for emergency supplies allocation based on scenario deduction to dynamically describe the entire process of change in emergency material allocation post-earthquake and the re-optimization of the emergency supplies allocation,and verified its validity via a numerical example.