基于SFN-SD的北极冰区船舶航行风险传递路径研究

Research on risk transfer path of ship navigation in Arctic waters based on SFN and SD

为明晰北极冰区船舶航行风险传递路径,从人员、船舶、环境、管理4方面识别北极冰区航行风险因素,并应用空间故障网络(SFN)理论和决策试验与评估实验室(DEMATEL)方法,分析船舶北极航行风险事件;采用主观数据获得风险传递概率和传递路径,构建北极冰区船舶航行风险传递网络模型;基于永盛轮北极航行记录数据,运用系统动力学(SD)方法,仿真并验证北极冰区船舶航行风险传递网络模型。结果表明:船舶北极航行风险事件中,8种为边缘事件,14种为过程事件,8种为最终事件;从边缘事件到最终事件有15条网络传递路径;经实例验证,所构建的风险传递网络模型可靠;通过该模型能够描述风险事件的传递效应和传递路径,获得最终风险事件的动态概率曲线,揭示北极冰区船舶航行风险传递的规律,为风险防范措施的制定提供技术支持。

In order to clarify the risk transfer path of ship navigation in the Arctic waters,risk factors of ship navigation were identified from the human,ship,environment and management.SFN and decision making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)method were used to analyze the Arctic navigation risk events.The risk transfer probability and risk transfer path were obtained by subjective data and then the risk transfer network model of ship navigation in the Arctic waters was constructed.Based on the navigation record data of vessel"Yongsheng",SD method was used to simulate and verify the Arctic waters ship navigation risk transfer network model.The results showed that among the risk events of ship navigation in the Arctic,8 were edge events,14 were process events and 8 are target events and 15 risk transfer paths from edge events to target events were generated.The example shows that the risk transfer network model is reliable.This model can describe the transmission effect and path of risk events,obtain the dynamic probability curve of ultimate risk events,reveal the law of ship navigation risk transmission in the Arctic waters,which provide technical support for the formulation of risk prevention measures.