基于H-OWA算子和投影寻踪的地铁站水灾安全韧性评估

Evaluation of subway station flood safety resilience based on H-OWA operator and projection pursuit

为提升地铁运营系统的可靠性,基于韧性理论,从抵抗能力、适应能力和恢复能力3个方面,提出包含20个韧性指标的地铁站水灾安全韧性指标体系;采用H-OWA算子修正层次分析法(AHP)的主观误差,再结合投影寻踪模型(PPM),确定韧性指标体系综合权重;应用疏散模拟软件Massmotion获取地铁站应急疏散时间作为指标数据,并基于模糊综合评价(FCE)建立地铁站水灾安全韧性评估模型,以郑州紫荆山地铁站为例进行模型应用。研究结果表明:该安全韧性评估模型通过获取与处理目标地铁站指标数据,可确定地铁站水灾安全韧性等级;实例紫荆山地铁站水灾安全韧性等级为较高韧性(Ⅳ),且评估结果与地铁站实际情况相符;出入口可防御水位标高指标对地铁站水灾安全韧性影响最大。

In order to improve the reliability of subway operation system,based on the resilience theory,a flood safety resilience index system of subway station flood including 20 resilience indexes was proposed from three aspects:resistance ability,adaptability and recovery ability.The H-OWA operator was used to correct the subjective error of Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP),and PPM was used to determine the comprehensive weight of the resilience index system.The evacuation simulation software Massmotion was used to obtain the emergency evacuation time of the subway station as the index data,and the flood safety resilience evaluation model of the subway station was established based on FCE.The model was applied to Zijingshan subway station in Zhengzhou.The results show that the safety resilience evaluation model can determine the flood safety resilience level of subway station by obtaining and processing the target subway station index data.The flood safety resilience level of Zijing Mountain subway station is a bit high resilience(Ⅳ),and the evaluation results are consistent with the actual situation of subway station.The defensive water level elevation index of the entrance and exit has the greatest impact on the flood safety resilience of the subway station.