基于模糊DEMATEL-ISM模型的尾矿库事故影响因素研究

Study on influencing factors on tailings pond accidents based on fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM model

尾矿库事故致因复杂,各影响因素相互作用且彼此耦合,为明确引发尾矿库事故的关键因素,深入了解各个影响因素的因果属性及其相互作用关系,提高尾矿库安全管理水平,提出了模糊DEMATEL-ISM模型,从人、物、环境、管理4个维度建立尾矿库事故影响因素指标体系,采用模糊集理论对DEMATEL方法进行改进,确定系统中关键影响因素和各个影响因素的因果属性,利用ISM划分不同层次结构并明确各因素之间的逻辑关系。以国内某尾矿库为例,验证模糊DEMATEL-ISM模型的有效性,结果表明:改进后的模型确定了9个原因因素和7个结果因素,其中溃坝、尾矿泄漏及人员违规违章作业是引发尾矿库事故的关键因素;构建的5级3阶多级递阶结构从直接原因、间接原因、根本原因3个方面体现了引发尾矿库事故的影响因素相互作用关系,并提出了相应的风险管控措施。该模型与传统DEMATEL方法相比更加客观准确。

The cause of tailings pond accident is complex,and the influencing factors interact and are coupled with each other.In order to clarify the key factors leading to tailings pond accidents,deeply understand the causal attributes and their interaction among various influencing factors,and improve the safety management level of tailings pond,a fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM model was proposed.The index system of influencing factors of tailings pond accident was established from four dimensions:human,material,environment and management.The fuzzy set theory was used to improve the DEMATEL method to determine the key influencing factors in the system and the cause and effect of each factor.ISM was used to divide different hierarchies and clarify the logical relationship between factors.Taking a tailing pond as a reference case,the validity of fuzzy DEMATEL-ISM model was verified.The results show that the improved model was employed to identify 9 cause factors and 7 effect factors,among which dam failure,tailings leakage and personnel operations against rules were the key factors affecting on tailings pond accidents.The 5-level and 3-level hierarchical structure reflected the interaction between influencing factors leading to tailings pond accidents in three aspects:direct causes,indirect causes and primary causes,corresponding risk control measures were put forward.Compared with the traditional DEMATEL method,the results from this model are objective facts.