数字经济推动外贸高质量发展的机理及实证研究

Digital economy promoting high-quality development of foreign trade:mechanismand empirical study

基于数字经济影响外贸高质量发展的理论机制,构建指标体系并测算中国2005—2020年数字经济和外贸高质量发展指数,运用中介效应模型研究数字经济推动外贸高质量发展的影响机制,采用增加控制变量、替换指标等多种方法进行稳健性检验。研究结果表明,数字经济能直接促进中国外贸高质量发展。从作用机制看,产业结构升级和技术进步发挥中介作用,是数字经济推动中国外贸高质量发展的重要渠道。研究结论为评估数字经济对中国外贸高质量发展的影响提供了理论依据和实证支持,同时对中国外贸如何实现高质量发展提出了政策建议。

Based on the theoretical mechanism of digital economy affecting the high-quality development of foreign trade,the paper builds an index system to calculate the digital economy and foreign trade high-quality development index in China from 2005 to 2020.It uses the intermediary effect model to study the mechanism of digital economy promoting high-quality development of foreign trade,and tests the robustness by increasing control variables and replacing indexes.The results show that digital economy can directly promote the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.In the perspective of action mechanism,industrial structure upgrading and technological progress play an intermediary role,which is an important channel for the digital economy to promote the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.The conclusions provide theoretical basis and empirical support for evaluating the impact of digital economy on the highquality development of China’s foreign trade,and give some policy suggestions on how to achieve the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade.