利用时空物种分布模型研究海州湾大泷六线鱼的时空分布

Modeling distribution of Hexagrammos otakii in Haizhou Bay based on spatio-temporal species distribution models

为了解海州湾大泷六线鱼时空分布特征及其影响因素,根据2013—2019年秋季在海州湾开展的底拖网渔业资源调查和环境观测数据,构建了时空物种分布模型(spatio-temporal species distribution models),分析其分布与环境因子的关系,通过残差分析比较其与广义加性模型的残差独立性和异质性,运用交叉验证检验模型预测性能,最终结合delta方法对其分布进行预测并计算栖息地适宜性指数(habitat suitability index,HSI)和资源分布重心。时空模型的偏差解释率为65.50%,模型分析表明,影响大泷六线鱼资源分布最主要的环境因子为水深(22.11%),其次为底层水温(12.98%),底层盐度(0.09%)的影响较小,水深与其分布存在正向相关性,底层水温与其分布存在负向相关性,底层盐度与其分布存在弱正向线性关系。时空模型的残差独立性和异质性较GAM更强,其交叉验证回归线斜率为0.90±0.38。模型预测结果表明,大泷六线鱼主要分布在34.5°N以北,120.0°E以东的海域,其栖息地适宜性指数的高值区域呈现逐年收缩的趋势,资源分布重心呈现向东北海域转移的趋势,这可能是气候变迁以及捕捞压力共同作用的结果。本研究解析了大泷六线鱼在海州湾的时空分布,对于深入了解大泷六线鱼的分布动态和科学的渔业管理具有重要意义。

To understand the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of Hexagrammos otakii in Haizhou Bay and its influencing factors,a spatio-temporal species distribution model was constructed based on the bottom trawl fishery resource surveys and environmental observation data conducted in Haizhou Bay from autumn 2013–2019 and used to analyze the relationship between its distribution and environmental factors.The residual independence and heterogeneity of the model were compared with those of the generalized additive model(GAM)by residual analysis,and the prediction performance of the model was tested by cross-validation,and finally the distribution was predicted and the habitat suitability index(HSI)and the center of gravity of resource distribution were calculated by the delta method.The deviation explanation rate of the spatio-temporal model was 65.50%,and model analysis showed that the most important environmental factor influencing the distribution of H.otakii was water depth(22.11%),followed by bottom water temperature(12.98%),while bottom salinity(0.09%)had less influence.There was a positive correlation between water depth and its distribution,a negative correlation between bottom water temperature and its distribution,and a weak positive linear relationship between bottom salinity and its distribution.The residual independence and heterogeneity of the spatiotemporal model was stronger than that of GAM,with a cross-validation regression line slope of 0.90±0.38.The model predictions showed that H.otakii mainly distributed in the sea area north of 34.5°N and east of 120.0°E.its high HSI value area tended to shrink year by year,and the center of gravity of resource distribution was shifting to the northeastern sea area,which might be the result of the combined effect of climate change and fishing pressure.This study analyzes the spatio-temporal distribution of H.otakii in Haizhou Bay,which is important for understanding the distribution dynamics of H.otakii and scientific fisheries management.