双重差分方法下的利率传导有效性因素分析--基于银行资产负债表的视角

Analysis of the Factors of Interest Rate Transmission Effectiveness under the DID Approach--Based on a Bank Balance Sheet Perspective

本文基于银行资产负债表视角构建了银行资产负债行为数理模型,据此分析负债端不同类型利率对贷款利率传导的影响,提出相应假说,认为负债结构是影响利率传导的重要因素。并进一步运用面板门槛模型、双重差分模型进行实证检验,结果显示:存款利率仍然是负债端影响贷款利率最关键的要素,且存款规模变化导致贷款利率反向变动;资产负债表对利率传导效率具有显著影响,银行间市场融资规模变化导致贷款利率同向变动;随着市场融资占比的提升,尤其是在市场融资占比提升至3.61%后,市场利率传导效率明显提升;再贷款利率对于定向引导降低普惠小微贷款利率具有明显作用。为此建议:一是优化存款定价机制,增强银行存款定价与市场利率的联动性;二是进一步引导商业银行调整资产负债结构,增强银行主动负债能力,提升贷款定价市场化水平;三是继续用好货币政策工具的政策效应和宣示效应,降低重点领域贷款利率。

This paper constructs a mathematical model of banks asset-liability behavior based on the perspective of banks balance sheets,and accordingly analyzes the impact of different types of interest rates on the liability side on loan interest rate transmission,puts forward the corresponding hypothesis that the liability structure is an important factor affecting transmission,further,we use panel threshold model and DID for empirical testing,the article for the first time uses real deposit rates,loan interest rates.The results show that the deposit rate is still the most critical factor affecting the lending rate on the liability side,and the change in deposit size leads to the inverse change in the lending rate;the balance sheet has a significant impact on the efficiency of transmission,and the change in the size of interbank market financing leads to the same directional change in the lending rate;as the market financing ratio increases,especially after the market financing ratio increases to 3.61%,the market interest rate transmission efficiency improved significantly.The refinancing rat has a significant role in guiding the reduction of the interest rate for small and micro enterprise loans.To this end,it is recommended that:first,to further guide commercial banks to adjust their asset and liability structure,enhance their active liability capacity and improve the market level of loan pricing;second,to continue to make good use of the policy effect and declarative effect of monetary policy tools to reduce the interest rate of loans in key areas.