基于能源结构调整的省级区域碳排放预测研究

Carbon Emission Prediction of Provincial Regions Based on Energy Structure Adjustment

通过对贵州省2015—2020年经济、能源统计数据的分析,构建CO_(2)排放量计算模型,计算及分析了2025—2060年的碳排放量。结果表明,贵州省未来的能源消费需求逐年提高,但在化石能源比例下降的影响下,CO_(2)排放总量在2030年将实现达峰,2045年后快速下降。

Based on the analysis of economic and energy statistics of Guizhou Province from 2015 to 2020,the calculation model of carbon dioxide emissions was built,and carbon emissions from 2025 to 2060 was calculated and analyzed in this paper.The results show that the future energy consumption demand in Guizhou Province will increase via year,but the total carbon dioxide emission will reach the peak in 2030 and decrease rapidly after 2045 under the influence of the decrease of the proportion of fossil energy.