人口负增长与养老金制度高质量发展——基于宏观制度与微观待遇视角的分析

Negative Population Growth and High-Quality Development of Pension Systems:Analysis Based on Macro Institutional and Micro Treatment Perspectives

2022年我国人口出现负增长,人口负增长叠加人口老龄化将对我国养老金制度带来深远影响。本文根据我国第七次人口普查数据,对2020—2050年人口变化趋势进行预测,揭示人口负增长的未来趋势,从宏观角度对基本养老金可持续情况进行测算;基于养老金制度发展实际,分析人口负增长背景下制度体系面临的挑战,并从微观角度计算现有三支柱养老金对居民的养老保障力度。据此,得出以下结论:(1)我国职工基本养老保险将在2027年和2034年开始出现当期赤字和累计赤字,政府将对居民基本养老保险承担巨大的财政补贴责任;(2)对于不同缴费基数、缴费年限和收益率,职工养老保险金能够提供16.4%~75.8%的社平工资替代率和16.4%~25.3%的缴费工资替代率,居民养老保险金能够提供3%社平工资替代率;(3)第二支柱养老金能够提供12.9%~170%的社平工资替代率、12.9%~56.7%的缴费工资替代率;(4)第三支柱养老金能够提供6.9%~19.7%的社平工资替代率;(5)随着养老金缴费积累年限增加,养老金总替代率将逐渐提高,且第三支柱养老金的贡献率将逐渐下降。据此提出稳定公共养老金、扩大补充养老金以及完善个人养老金等建议,以期促进我国养老金制度高质量发展。

In 2022,China’s population has experienced negative growth,and the combination of negative population growth and aging population will have a profound impact on China’s pension system.This article predicts the trend of population change from 2020 to 2050 based on the data of the seventh population census,reveals the future trend of negative population growth,and calculates the sustainability of basic pension from a macro perspective.Based on the actual development of the pension system,this paper analyzes the challenges faced by the system under the background of negative population growth.From a micro perspective,this paper calculates the pension security strength of the existing three pillar pension for residents.Based on this,the following conclusions are drawn:(1)China’s basic pension insurance for employees will begin to experience current and cumulative deficits in 2027 and 2034,and the government will bear a huge financial subsidy responsibility for residents’basic pension insurance;(2)For different payment bases,payment years,and rates of return,employee pension insurance benefits can provide a 16.4%~75.8%social wage substitution rate,and a 16.4%~25.3%contribution wage substitution rate.Residents’pension insurance can provide a 3%social wage replacement rate;(3)The second pillar pension can provide a social wage substitution rate of 12.9%~170%,and a contribution wage substitution rate of 12.9%~56.7%;(4)The third pillar pension can provide a social wage replacement rate of 2.3%~19.7%;(5)As the accumulation period of pension contributions increases,the total replacement rate of pension will gradually increase,and the contribution rate of the third pillar pension will gradually decrease.Based on this,suggestions are proposed to stabilize public pension,expand supplementary pension,and improve personal pension,in order to promote the high-quality development of China’s pension system.