绍兴香榧林碳汇潜力及经济价值研究

Carbon Sink Potential and Value of Torreya grandis Forest in Shaoxing

基于绍兴市2015~2021年的香榧林蓄积量数据,使用森林蓄积量扩展法估算香榧林碳汇量,并用灰色预测模型GM(1,1)估算了绍兴香榧林2022~2026年的森林碳汇潜力;最后综合使用市场价值法和碳税法分别估算了对应年份的绍兴香榧林碳汇的经济价值。结果表明:绍兴市香榧林碳汇量从2015年的52.72万t增长到2026年的63.23万t;市场价值法估算的香榧林碳汇价值从2015年的3057.76万元增长到2026年的3667.34万元,而碳税法估算的碳汇价值从2015年的1288.48万元增长到2026年的1545.34万元。绍兴香榧林的碳汇量和碳汇价值稳步增长,但增长速率有所降低。

Based on the data of Torreya grandis forest stock from 2015 to 2021 in Shaoxing,the carbon sink of Torreya grandis forest was estimated using the forest stock expansion method,and the forest carbon sink potential of Zhejiang Province from 2022 to 2026 was estimated using the gray prediction model GM(1,1);Finally,the economic value of the carbon sink of Torreya grandis forest in Shaoxing in the corresponding year was estimated using the market value method and the carbon tax law.The results show that the carbon sequestration of Torreya grandis stands in Shaoxing City will increase from 527200 tons in 2015 to 632300 tons in 2026;The carbon sink value of Torreya grandis forest estimated by the market value method increased from 30577600 yuan in 2015 to 36673400 yuan in 2026,while the carbon sink value estimated by the carbon tax law increased from 12884800 yuan in 2015 to 15453400 yuan in 2026.The carbon sequestration and carbon sequestration value of Torreya grandis forests in Shaoxing increased steadily,but the growth rate decreased.