重大突发事件下大群体靶向协同决策模型仿真研究

Simulation Research of Targeted Collaborative Decision-Making Model for Large Groups in Major Emergencies

【目的】有效提高政府决策群体在面对重大突发事件时的应急决策效能。【方法】从信息传播的角度出发,基于动机认知理论,围绕自我定向与任务定向两大动机认知的内驱维度以及外部刺激诱发动机、群体结构诱发动机和业务素养诱发动机三大动机维度展开研究,通过引入SIR传播模型的相关原理,构建大群体靶向协同应急决策模型(TC-LGDM)。【结果】次生事件发生概率、成员个体决策影响力以及成员个体专业能力三个现实因素与大群体靶向协同决策的最终形成及其效能密切相关。【局限】群体内的决策状态种类有限;未对决策个体在接收信息过程形成的附加信息价值进行深入探讨。【结论】研究内容既可为辅助决策者获得决策情境映现和趋势预判能力提供有益参考,又是提升政府应对公共危机风险事件的可持续发展力和决策科学化水平的必然选择。

[Objective]This paper tries to effectively improve the decision-making efficiency of governmental agencies in major emergencies.[Methods]From the perspective of information dissemination and based on motivation-cognition theory,we focused on the two internal driving dimensions of self-orientation and taskorientation,as well as the three external motivational dimensions induced by stimulus,group structure,and professionalism.By introducing the relevant principles of the SIR transmission model,we constructed a targeted collaboration decision model for the large groups(the TC-LGDM model).[Results]The three realistic factors,i.e.,the probability of secondary events,the influence of individual decision makings,and the professional competence of members,are closely related to the final formation and efficacy of large group targeted collaborative decision-making.[Limitations]The decision-making states within the group are limited,and the additional information value formed by the decision-makers in the process of receiving information needs to be explored more deeply.[Conclusions]This study provides valuable references for decision-makers to obtain situational manifestation and trend prediction capabilities.It is also an inevitable choice to enhance the sustainable development and decision-making of government in responding to public crisis risk events.