中国式现代化背景下跨境资本流动风险研究

Research on the Risk of Cross-border Capital Flow under the Background of Chinese Modernization

世界之变、时代之变、历史之变诸多变化正以古今未有的方式袭来,在中国式现代化推动发展进程中,中国资本账户有序开放、人民币跨境流动增加、汇率波动频繁,伴随国内金融体制的不断深化改革,市场化发展和各项政策推进,跨境资本流动在全球范围内加速变动。中国跨境资本流动面临巨大人口规模、全体人民共同富裕目标、物质文明和精神文明相协调、人与自然和谐共生、走和平发展道路等中国式现代性的要求。其近期特征是资金结构从“双顺差”到“一顺一逆”的格局演变,流动方向由单向流入转为双向波动。目前中国跨境资本流动面临金融外部性、资产负债表效应和金融放大效应、资本项目开放下跨境资本流动汇率的高估等风险,应从以下方面防范和化解风险:以独立自主的现代化为前提,统筹经济政策全局,不断完善资本项目开放的外部环境;以共同富裕的现代化为根本,抑制非法洗钱,严防资本外逃;以和平发展的现代化为出发点,统领多边合作,推动跨境资本合理流动。

Many changes in the world,times and history are coming in a way that has never been seen before.In the process of promoting the development of Chinese path to modernization,China's capital account has been opened in an orderly manner,cross-border RMB flow has increased,and exchange rate fluctuations have been frequent.With the continuous deepening reform of the domestic financial system,market-oriented development and the promotion of various policies,cross-border capital flow has accelerated changes globally.China's crossborder capital flow is facing the requirements of Chinese modernization such as the huge population size,the goal of common prosperity for all people,the coordination of material civilization and spiritual civilization,the harmonious coexistence of man and nature,and the path to peaceful development.Its recent capital structure has changed from “double surplus” to “one surplus and one deficit”,and the direction of flows has changed from one-way inflow to two-way fluctuation.At present,China's cross-border capital flow faces risks such as financial externalities,balance sheet effects and financial amplification effects,and the overestimation of the exchange rate of cross-border capital flows under the opening of capital accounts.Risks should be prevented and resolved from the following aspects:on the premise of independent modernization,coordinate the overall economic policy,and constantly improve the external environment for capital account opening;take the modernization of common prosperity as the foundation,suppress illegal money laundering,and strictly prevent capital flight;based on peaceful development,lead multilateral cooperation and promote the rational flow of cross-border capital.