ARMA模型在预测全球平均温度情况中的应用

Application of ARMA Model in Predicting Global Average Temperature

基于全球平均温度的动态数据,对全球平均气温情况进行了统计分析,首先,运用时间序列分析的方法,对历史数据进行预处理并建立ARMA(p,q)模型,其次,应用历史数据进行验证,并分析了预测精度。结果表明,所建的模型能很好地预测短期内气温变化情况,拟合模型符合发展趋势,为研究气象预测等问题提供理论依据。

Based on the dynamic data of global average temperature,this paper made a statistical analysis of the global average temperature.Firstly,the method of time series analysis was used to preprocess historical data and establish a ARMA(p,q)model.Secondly,the historical data was used to verify the model,and the prediction ac⁃curacy was analyzed.The results showed that the model could well predict the short-term temperature change,and the fitting model conformed to the development trend.It provides theoretical basis for the study of meteoro⁃logical prediction and other problems.