国际风险冲击、税收政策工具与企业风险承担

The Shocks of International Risks,Tax Policy Instruments and Corporate Risk-Taking

国际风险冲击对我国企业风险承担的影响效应被显著低估。为此,选取2000-2020年国际风险数据、政府税收数据与上市企业微观数据,利用MCS小样本偏差修正的SVAR模型和CMPR门槛效应模型,实证研究国际风险、税收政策工具与企业风险承担的非线性关系。研究表明:国际风险冲击平均可以解释我国企业风险承担波动的33%;国际风险的负向门槛效应长期存在,只要风险累积不超过最低门槛值,就不会对税收政策工具与企业风险承担产生显著冲击;在持续性的国际风险冲击下,税收政策工具的有效性下降,有效税率与税收补偿机制对企业风险承担的助推作用减弱,甚至产生反向推动。

The shocks of international risks to corporate risk-taking is significantly underestimated.Based on the international risk data,government tax data and micro data of listed enterprises from 2000 to 2020,the nonlinear relationship between international risk,tax policy instruments and corporate risk-taking is empirically studied by using the SV AR model of MCS's small sample deviation correction and CMPR threshold effect model.The results show that:international risk can explain the fluctuation of corporate risk-taking by an average of 33%.The negative threshold effect of international risk exists for a long time,as long as the risk accumulation does not exceed the minimum threshold value,it will not have a significant impact on tax policy tools and enterprise risk-taking.Under the continuous international risk impact,the effectiveness of tax policy tools is reduced,the effective tax rate and tax compensation mechanism to promote corporate risk-taking weakened,and even has a reverse push.