基于多状态故障树的舰船装备可靠性分析方法

Reliability Analysis Method for Warship Equipment Based on Multi-state Fault Tree

为分析舰船装备的系统和单元部件介于正常和故障之间的中间过渡状态,结合实际工作情况,提出了一种基于多状态故障树的可靠性分析方法。以舰船电力系统为例,将传统故障树模型的底层事件布尔单元改进为可维修的三态(正常、劳损降级和故障)单元部件;结合智能体董正琼技术建立该多状态故障树仿真模型,各事件之间的从属关系采用抽象映射进行描述;通过多次蒙特卡洛仿真运行,根据各底事件发生概率定量计算出电力系统的可靠度统计值为99.624%,在一定程度上验证了所提可靠性分析方法的可行性。

A reliability analysis method based on multi-state fault tree and the practical operation conditions is proposed to analyze the transition states between normal and failure for the system and unit components in warship equipment.Taking the power system of the warship as an example,boolean unit of bottom event of the traditional fault tree is changed to repairable three-state unit components,including normal,strain degradation,and faulty unit components.The multi-agent algorithm is used to model the simulated multi-state fault tree.The affiliation among each event is described with abstract mapping,by running Monte Carlo simulation several times,the calculated result of statistical reliability is 99.624%according to the occurrence probability of each bottom event,which verifies the feasibility of the proposed method to a certain extent.