贸易开放对代际收入流动性的影响

The Impact of Trade Opening on Intergenerational Income Mobility

本文构建了贸易开放影响代际收入流动性的分析框架,探讨其机制并提出关于贸易开放对代际收入流动性影响的理论假说,使用2011年和2015年的CHNS数据进行实证检验。实证检验与理论假说基本一致:贸易开放有助于代际收入流动性,能使子代收入向高于父代收入的等级攀升,阻止子代收入向低于父代收入的等级流动;高水平对外开放对代际收入流动性的促进作用更大;贸易开放对代际间收入流动性的影响在城乡、地区、父代收入水平及父代教育程度等方面存在异质性;贸易开放通过促进代际教育流动以及产业结构升级带来代际收入流动。基于以上结论,我国应持续推进高水平对外开放,缩小城乡与地区贫富差距,推进教育公平和产业结构升级,这些都有助于机会平等,从而实现共同富裕。

This paper constructs an analytical framework of trade openness affecting intergenerational income mobility,explores the mechanism of trade openness affecting intergenerational income mobility,and proposes relevant theoretical hypotheses of trade openness affecting intergenerational income mobility,which are tested empirically using CHNS data in 2011 and 2015.The empirical tests are basically consistent with the theoretical hypotheses:(1)trade openness helps to promote intergenerational income mobility,which can make children’s income climb to levels higher than their parents’income and prevent children’s income from flowing to levels lower than their parents’income,and in addition,it is found that high level of foreign openness has a greater effect on promoting intergenerational income mobility;(2)the impact of trade opening on intergenerational income mobility is heterogeneous in terms of urban-rural,regional,paternal income level and paternal education;(3)trade opening can bring intergenerational income mobility by promoting intergenerational education mobility and industrial structure upgrading.Based on the above conclusions,China should continue to promote a high level of openness to the outside world,narrow the gap between the rich and the poor in urban and rural areas,promote equity in education and upgrade the industrial structure,and contribute to equality of opportunity,so as to achieve common prosperity.