世界田径锦标赛女子项目成绩发展态势及灰色GM(1,1)模型预测研究

A Study on the Development Trend of Women's Performance in the World Athletics Championships and Gray GM(1,1)Model Prediction

本文采用趋势分析和灰色GM(1,1)模型预测等方法对世界田径锦标赛女子项目前三名成绩进行研究和预测。结果表明女子项目总体呈现下降趋势,项目的发展速度不同。竞赛项目中400米栏发展速度最快,4×100米接力发展速度相对较慢。田赛项目中,撑杆跳高项目呈现增长趋势,铅球项目的下降趋势较快。灰色预测模型GM(1,1)预测,经残差检验,模型精准度较高,冠军模型有5个项目精准度为100%,亚军模型有3个项目精准度为100%,季军模型有4个项目精准度为100%,其余模型精准度均在70%以上,精准度较高。

In this paper,trend analysis and gray GM(1,1)model prediction method were performed and employed to study and predict the top three results of women's events in the World Athletics Championships.The results reveal an overall downward trend of the women's events and different development speeds of events.Among the competitive events,400 Meters Hurdles developed the fastest,while 4x100 Meters Relay developed relatively slowly.Among field events,a growth trend was observed on Pole Vault,but the development of Shot Put declined rapidly.Gray forecasting model GM(1,1)predicts that after residual tests,the model has a high degree of accuracy.The champion model has 5 events at 100%accuracy,the runner-up model 3 events at 100%accuracy,and the model ranked the third has 4 events at 100%accuracy.The accuracy of all of the other models is above 70%,which is relatively high.