中国式现代化的统计测度及推进路径

Statistical Measurement of Chinese Path to Modernization and Analysis of Its Promotion Path

本文构建由社会服务现代化、经济发展现代化、技术创新现代化、文化建设现代化、绿色发展现代化、政治治理现代化6个维度组成的指标体系,采用熵值法、Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计函数和空间Markov链方法,对中国式现代化发展水平进行测度。研究结果表明:目前中国式现代化水平不高,但整体呈现良好上升趋势,其中绿色发展现代化水平相对较低;东部地区中国式现代化综合水平明显高于中部和西部地区;中国式现代化水平区域差异主要来源于区域间差异,且这一差异呈现扩大趋势;中国式现代化水平具有俱乐部收敛特点,发生状态转移概率较小。鉴于此,提出构建绿色现代化发展体系、建立区域差异化发展机制、释放中国式现代化高水平地区辐射带动效应的推进路径,希冀为中国式现代化发展提供有益借鉴。

This paper constructs an indicator system consisting of six dimensions,including modernization of social services,modernization of economic development,modernization of technological innovation,modernization of cultural construction,modernization of green development,and modernization of political governance.It uses entropy method,Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation function and spatial Markov chain method to measure the development level of Chinese path to modernization.The results show that the level of Chinese path to modernization is not high at present,but the overall trend is good,among which the level of green development modernization is relatively low.The comprehensive level of Chinese path to modernization in the eastern region is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions.The regional difference in the level of Chinese path to modernization mainly comes from the regional difference,and this difference shows an expanding trend.The level of Chinese path to modernization has the characteristics of club convergence,the probability of state transition is small.In view of this,the promotion path of building a green modernization development system,establishing a regional differentiated development mechanism,and releasing the radiation and driving effect of high-level areas of Chinese path to modernization is proposed,hoping to provide a useful reference for the development of Chinese path to modernization.