补贴机制退出对中国新能源汽车出口的影响研究

Research on the Impact of the Withdrawal of Subsidy Mechanism on China's New Energy Vehicle Export

研究补贴退坡对新能源汽车出口的影响对促进中国新能源汽车产业高质量发展以及“双碳”目标的实现有着重要的意义。本文主要通过断点回归的实证分析方法,利用2017年1月~2022年10月中国海关总署统计的新能源汽车出口数据以及月度时间变量研究新能源汽车补贴退坡政策对新能源汽车出口的影响。结果表明,补贴退坡政策对新能源汽车出口的影响显著为正。补贴退坡政策可以通过提高新能源汽车企业的出口比重、推动新能源汽车企业的技术创新来促进新能源汽车出口,其影响程度受到出口目标国家的经济规模以及出口的新能源汽车种类的影响。本文为补贴退坡政策是否促进、如何促进新能源汽车出口提供了理论依据,也为政府推动新能源汽车出口、发展新能源汽车产业提供了决策依据。

It is of great significance to study the impact of subsidy withdrawal on the export of new energy vehicles for promoting the high-quality development of China's new energy vehicle industry and realizing the goal of“Double Carbon”.This paper mainly adopts the empirical analysis method of breakpoint regression,and uses the export data of new energy vehicles collected by the General Administration of Customs of China from January 2017 to October 2022 and the monthly time variable to study the impact of new energy vehicle subsidy retreat policy on the export of new energy vehicles.The results show that the effect of subsidy retreat policy on the export of new energy vehicles is significantly positive.The subsidy regression policy can promote the export of new energy vehicles by increasing the export proportion of new energy vehicle enterprises and promoting the technological innovation of new energy vehicle enterprises,and its influence degree is affected by the economic scale of the export target country and the types of new energy vehicles exported.This study provides a theoretical basis for whether and how to promote the export of new energy vehicles through the subsidy retreat policy,and also provides a decision-making basis for the government to promote the export of new energy vehicles and develop the new energy automobile industry.