基于百度指数的2022年全球猴痘疫情网络舆情研究

Analysis of online public opinion on global monkeypox epidemic in 2022 based on Baidu Index

目的分析2022年全球猴痘疫情网络舆情特点,探讨科学的舆情引导策略。方法收集“猴痘”关键词2022年5月7日至9月30日的全国网民搜索指数和全球猴痘累计病例数,分析二者的变化趋势及相关性。收集每周“猴痘”相关热搜词,分析网民关注重点及其与国内疫情发展阶段的关联。结果全球猴痘累计病例数与全国网民搜索指数呈非直线相关(R^(2)=0.122,P=0.001),全球猴痘累计病例数较少或较多时二者呈负相关,处于中等时二者呈正相关。国外疫情期和内地输入疫情期“猴痘”相关热搜词均涵盖猴痘症状、疫情、类似疾病、传播途径、病原几个方面,但国外疫情期还包括猴痘疫苗、预后及动物宿主方面,内地输入疫情期还包括猴痘早期症状方面,且有关疫情、传播途径的“猴痘”相关搜索词热度升高。结论国内无本土病例的国际性突发疫情的发展中期和重大进展期应加强舆论风险防控。国内疫情的不同发展阶段网民关注重点不同,应针对其加强信息宣传和舆论引导。

Objective To analyze the characteristics of online public opinion on the global monkeypox epidemic in 2022,and to explore the scientific public opinion guiding strategies.Methods The Baidu search index of Chinese netizens for the keyword“monkeypox”and the cumulative number of global monkeypox cases were collected to analyze their change trends and correlation.The weekly hot search words related to“monkeypox”were collected to analyze the focuses those netizens paying attention to and their relation with the domestic epidemic development stages.Results There was a non-linear correlation between the cumulative number of global monkeypox cases and the Baidu search index of Chinese netizens of the keyword“monkeypox”(R^(2)=0.122,P=0.001).They were negatively related while the cumulative number of global monkeypox cases was less or more,and positively related while it was medium.The hot search terms related to“monkeypox”in both the epidemic period abroad and the imported epidemic period in the mainland covered the aspects of monkeypox symptoms,epidemic situation,similar diseases,transmission routes and pathogens.But the foreign epidemic period also included the aspects of monkeypox vaccine,prognosis and animal hosts,whereas in the imported epidemic stage in the mainland included the early symptoms of monkeypox,moreover the search terms for“monkeypox”related to the epidemic and transmission route increased in popularity.Conclusion The public opinion risk prevention and control should be strengthened in the middle and major progress stages of international endemic outbreaks with no domestic cases.In different stages of the domestic epidemic development,the netizens should pay different attention to it,so the information publicity and public opinion guidance should be strengthened.