基于动态权重的同桥并行油气管道风险评价

Risk Assessment Method for Parallel Oil and Gas Pipelines on the Same Bridge Based on Dynamic Weights

为了精确评价同桥并行油气管道的风险等级,提出了在动态权重的基础上考虑同桥并行油气管道干扰指标的风险评价方法。首先,利用改进的层次分析法确定各指标的常权重。其次,基于管道影响因素权重随时间变化的特性,采用变权理论建立动态权重模型。再次,根据文献查阅、现场调研建立同桥并行管道间风险评价指标体系并划分并行管道风险等级标准,结合并行油气管道路由环境综合风险计算模型,将考虑并行管道干扰与不考虑时的风险结果进行对比。最后,以中缅同桥并行管道为例,基于提出的风险计算与动态权重模型,分析了考虑并行管道干扰前后的风险等级。结果表明:考虑并行管道干扰能更加客观地反映管道的真实风险水平,且提出的方法科学、有效。

In order to accurately evaluate the risk level of the same-bridge parallel oil and gas pipelines,a risk evaluation method is proposed,in which the interference index of the same-bridge parallel oil and gas pipelines is considered on the basis of dynamic weights.Firstly,the constant weight of each index is determined using improved AHP.Secondly,based on the characteristics that the weights of pipeline risk evaluation influence factors change with time,a dynamic weight model is established by using the variable weight theory.Thirdly,a risk evaluation index system and a risk level division standard for the same-bridgeparallel pipelines are established based on literature and on-site investigation data,and combined with a comprehensive risk calculation model for the routing environment of parallel oil and gas pipelines,the risk assessment results with and without considering the interference between parallel pipelines are compared.Finally,taking the China-Myanmar same-bridge parallel pipelines as an example,the risk levels with and without considering the interference between parallel pipelines are calculated based on the proposed risk level and dynamic weight calculation models.The results show that to consider the interference between parallel pipelines can more objectively reflect the real risk level of pipelines,and the proposed method is scientific and effective.