丝绸之路经济带中国段文化旅游产业高质量发展的时空演变及失配度分析

Spatio-temporal and mismatch evolution of the high-quality development of cultural tourism industry in Chinese section of the Silk Road economic belt

以丝绸之路经济带中国段9省域文化旅游产业为研究对象,构建产业结构、经济效率和增长动力3维度的文化旅游产业高质量发展指标体系;运用修正泰尔指数、三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数模型等方法分析研究区域文旅产业高质量发展的时空特征;借助健康距离模型和面板分位数回归,探讨文旅高质量发展子系统失配状况及影响因素.结果表明,2011—2019年丝绸之路经济带中国段文旅产业经济高质量发展呈震荡上升趋势,空间格局表现为从南北向中间递减;文旅产业高质量发展子系统的失配度曲折下降,整体趋势向好,但地区不均衡问题仍然突出;随着失配度上升,科技创新对文旅高质量发展失配度由促进作用转为抑制作用,政府调控由抑制作用转为促进作用,市场化程度始终发挥抑制效应.从整备文化旅游生产要素、提升薄弱地区发展动力和发挥市场与政府调节作用3个层面对文旅产业高质量发展提出了一系列建议.

The cultural tourism industry of 9 provinces in the Chinese section of the Silk Road economic belt are selected as the research object,the three subsystems of industrial structure,economic efficiency and growth power are constructed as the high-quality development index system of cultural and tourism industry.The modified Theil index,three-stage DEA-Malmquist index model and other research methods are used to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of high-quality development of cultural and tourism industry in the study area from 2011 to 2019,the health distance and panel quantile regression model are used to further discuss the mismatching status and influencing factors of subsystems.The results show that the high-quality economic development of cultural tourism industry in Chinese section of the Silk Road economic belt from 2011 to 2019 years shows an upward trend of oscillation,and the spatial pattern of the quality of development decreases between the north and south;the mismatch degree of high-quality development subsystem of cultural and tourism industry decreases zigzagging,the overall trend is good,but the unbalanced development among regions is still prominent;with the rise of the mismatch degree,the effect of scientific and technological innovation on the high-quality development of cultural and tourism mismatch changes from promoting to inhibiting,government regulation is on the contrary,marketization always play a inhibiting effect.Based on the above conclusions,a series of countermeasures have been proposed from three aspects,which include reorganizing cultural tourism production factors,promoting the development power of weak areas and giving play to the regulating role of market and government.