基于定位大数据的中国集中连片特困区人口流动空间格局及其影响因素分析

Spatial Pattern and Influencing Factors of Population Mobility in China′s Poverty-Stricken Areas Based on Positioning Big Data

14个集中连片特困区(简称“贫困片区”)是我国人口流动剧烈区域之一,目前关于揭示贫困片区人口流动规律的研究尚不多见。该文利用2019年春节前后实时动态腾讯定位大数据与社会经济指标构建地理加权回归模型并进行耦合分析,揭示14个贫困片区人口流动的空间格局及其影响机制。结果表明:①总体上贫困片区人口流出明显,呈现出东、中部片区人口流出活跃,西部片区人口流入一般活跃的格局,且东、中部片区的净流出量明显高于西部片区的净流入量。②教育资源供需矛盾、三次产业发展以及贫困人口数对人口流动的影响较大,其中,二、三产业发展是吸引人口流入的主要因素,而教育资源供给矛盾、贫困人口多、第一产业附加值低是人口流出的主要影响因素。③东、中部片区人口流出主要缘于贫困人口基数大、教育资源不足,西部片区人口流入主要受二、三产业就业机会多的影响。最后提出贫困片区在乡村振兴阶段的发展建议。

Timely understanding of the population mobility in poverty-stricken areas(PSAs)and its influencing factors is conducive to reasonably guiding the orderly flow of local labor force in the stage of rural revitalization,which is crucial to consolidating and expanding the achievements of poverty alleviation.At present,the mobile positioning big data has obvious advantages over traditional census data in mining the provincial and municipal population migration characteristics.However,such positioning big data is seldom used to reveal the population mobility pattern in PSAs.In this regard,this paper takes 14 PSAs in China as the research areas,and seeks to reveal the population mobility pattern and its influence mechanism in PSAs through the coupling analysis of real-time Tencent positioning big data around the 2019 Spring Festival and socioeconomic indicators based on the geographical weighted regression.The results show that:①The population mobility in the PSAs is obvious,showing a pattern of active population outflow in the eastern and central PSAs and inactive population inflow in the western PSAs.②The insufficient educational resources,the primary industry,the secondary industry,the tertiary industry,and the poor population quantity impact greatly on population flow,among these factors the secondary industry and the tertiary industry are the main factors attracting population inflow while the insufficient educational resources,poor population quantity and the primary industry are the main influencing factors of population outflow.③The population outflow in eastern and central PSAs are primarily affected by the large poor population quantity,the insufficient educational resources,whereas the population inflow in western PSAs is mainly influenced by the plentiful employment opportunities caused by the development of the secondary industry and the tertiary industry.Finally,some suggestions are put forward to promote the development of PSAs during the stage of rural revitalization.